More about Peak Oil
Peak Oil recognizes that we are not close to running out of oil. However, we are close to running out of easy-to-get, cheap oil. Very close. That means we’re about to go into energy decline – that extended period when, year on year, we have decreasing amounts of oil to fuel our industrialized way of life.
The key concepts and implications of this are as follows:
- of all the fossil fuels, oil is uniquely energy dense and easy to transport.
- ever-increasing amounts of oil have fueled the growth of industrial economies.
- all the key elements of industrial societies - transportation, manufacturing, food production, home heating, construction - are totally reliant on oil.
- understanding the depletion pattern of oil fields is crucial. There is a consistent pattern to the rate of extraction of oil - and this applies to individual fields, to an oil region, to a country and indeed to the entire planet - namely, the first half of the oil is easy to extract and high quality. However, once about half the recoverable oil has been pumped out, further extraction starts getting more expensive, slower, more energy intensive and the oil is of a lower quality.
- this pattern means that the flow of oil to the market, which has been steadily increasing over the past 150 years, will peak. After that, every successive year will see an ever-diminishing flow of oil, as well as an increasing risk of interruptions to supply. a growing body of independent oil experts and oil geologists have calculated that the peak will occur between 2006 and 2012 (a few years of hindsight is required in order to confirm the peaking point).
- technological advances in oil extraction and prospecting will have only a minor effect on depletion rates. As an example, when the US (lower 48) hit their oil production peak in 1972, the rate of depletion over the next decades was high, despite a significant wave of technological innovations.
It’s difficult to overstate what this means to our lives in the developed countries. To understand the degree to which this will affect the industrial world, here is the opening paragraph of executive summary of a report prepared for the US government in 2005 by an agency of experts in risk management and oil analysis - Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management - Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC:
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."This report only came to light after being buried by the US administration for close to a year. A perusal of the far-reaching implications of the report give a clear indication why the government was so keen to keep it out of the public domain.
Despite the denial by governments, their agencies and oil companies that there is a problem, both Chevron and Total have both admitted that we're at the end of the era of cheap oil.
Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief Petroleum Engineer at BP, in May 2007 said the following:
“I expect to see a peak sometime before 2015... and decline rates at 4-8% per year“Several US senators, principally Republican Roscoe Bartlett, are raising the issue in the upper house.
In New Zealand, Jeanette Fitzsimmons, co-leader of the Green Party, is raising awareness about the threats of Peak Oil. In 2006, Helen Clark, the Prime Minister of New Zealand said this:
“...oil price is very high because probably we're not too far short from peak production if we're not already there.“In Australia, the MP Andrew McNamara headed up the Queensland Oil Vulnerability Task force. He is now Queensland's newly appointed Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change Ahead of the impending public release of his government-commissioned report on "Queensland's Vulnerability to Oil Prices", he talks about the importance of relocalisation in the face of oil depletion:
"There's no question whatsoever that community driven local solutions will be essential. That's where government will certainly have a role to play in assisting and encouraging local networks, who can assist with local supplies of food and fuel and water and jobs and the things we need from shops. It was one of my contentions in the first speech I made on this issue in February of 2005... that we will see a relocalisation of the way in which we live that will remind us of not last century, but the one before that. And that's not a bad thing. Undoubtedly one of the cheaper responses that will be very effective is promoting local consumption, local production, local distribution. And there are positive spin offs to that in terms of getting to know our communities better. There are human and community benefits from local networks that I look forward to seeing grow."But apart from a few notable exceptions, national leaders are not stepping up to address these problems in any meaningful way. Yet. So if the political leaders aren’t going to fix the problem, what is?
Technology is often touted as the panacea for Peak Oil and Climate Change problems. However, a careful review of the reality of these technological solutions indicates their immaturity, their often disastrous environmental consequences and their lack of connection to the real world.
We could dither about, waiting for technology or governments to solve the problem for us. However, general consensus now appears to be that this is a rather high risk option. It’s up to us in our local communities to step up into a leadership position on this.
We have to get busy NOW to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil. The good news is that many of the solutions and mitigations for Climate Change will also address the threats from Peak Oil - and vice versa.
In his report to the US government - Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management - Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC said:
Options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."In New Zealand, Jeanette Fitzsimmons, co-leader of the Green Party, is raising awareness about the threats of Peak Oil. In 2006, Helen Clark, the Prime Minister of New Zealand said this:
“...oil price is very high because probably we're not too far short from peak production if we're not already there.“In Australia, the MP Andrew McNamara heading up the Queensland Oil Vulnerability Task force. He is now Queensland's newly appointed Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change Ahead of the impending public release of his government-commissioned report on "Queensland's Vulnerability to Oil Prices", he talks about the importance of relocalisation in the face of oil depletion:
"There's no question whatsoever that community driven local solutions will be essential. That's where government will certainly have a role to play in assisting and encouraging local networks, who can assist with local supplies of food and fuel and water and jobs and the things we need from shops. It was one of my contentions in the first speech I made on this issue in February of 2005... that we will see a relocalisation of the way in which we live that will remind us of not last century, but the one before that. And that's not a bad thing. Undoubtedly one of the cheaper responses that will be very effective is promoting local consumption, local production, local distribution. And there are positive spin offs to that in terms of getting to know our communities better. There are human and community benefits from local networks that I look forward to seeing grow." The Honourable Andrew McNamara, Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and InnovationBut apart from a few notable exceptions, national leaders are not stepping up to address these problems in any meaningful way. Yet. So if the political leaders aren’t going to fix the problem, what is?
Technology is often touted as the panacea for Peak Oil and Climate Change problems. However, a careful review of the reality of these technological solutions indicates their immaturity, their often disastrous environmental consequences and their lack of connection to the real world.
We could dither about, waiting for technology or governments to solve the problem for us. However, general consensus now appears to be that this is a rather high risk option. It’s up to us in our local communities to step up into a leadership position on this.
We have to get busy NOW to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil. The good news is that many of the solutions and mitigations for Climate Change will also address the threats from Peak Oil - and vice versa.
Reused with permission from the Transition Network